Executive Summary
I believe that history and
present day innovations and events have made a significant progression towards
a future that will usher in a new mode of transportation. Automotive and IT
companies all over the world are collaborating to develop programs that will
produce or already have produced self-driving cars also known as autonomous
cars or automated vehicles.
Vehicle automation involves
the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) which controls the guidance system of
the car. AI in itself is a captivating science that has had and continues to
have an enormous impact on human imagination, ranging from Egyptian mythology
to Science Fiction. The philosophy behind the creating of a human likeness to
possess the ability to think and reason is at the heart of artificial
intelligence and is exemplified both by popular 19th century
fictional characters like Frankenstein and current scientific developments like
IBM’s Watson.
Vehicles that drive
themselves will become a common place in the world of transportation and IT
will be the driving force that makes this seemingly bizarre science experiment
a reality. It is because of our desire to fulfill our human indulgence to
design intelligence and essentially create human likenesses that makes vehicle
automation by far one of the most significant developments in human history.
IT: The Driving Force behind the Autonomous
Car
The application of
information technology to automobiles is a process that has been in play for
quite some time now and has utilized artificial intelligence to assist in its
control of the vehicle. Some examples of this technology range from a variety
of ground, air and submersible vehicles that are either fully autonomous or
semi-autonomous. An example of a semi-autonomous ground vehicle would be the
Free-ranging on grid (FROG) system that was designed in 1999 to operate as a
public transport to connect the Rivium business park in Capelle aan den IJssel with the neighboring city of Rotterdam[1]. This system consists of a magnetic track and a computer
guidance system that controls the transport vehicle. An example of a submersible autonomous
vehicle would be an Autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) which is basically a
robot that is used to explore underwater without the input from a human
operator. These vehicles have many uses in marine biology and assist scientists
in a variety of their research tasks. An example of an automated aircraft is of
course the one with the most familiarity to everyone and that is autopilot
which is especially noted for its navigational capabilities. But the most
interesting applications of information technology to vehicles in recent times
have been put towards the autonomous car. Auto makers from all over the world
seem to be betting on the autonomous car to be the car of the future.
The big negative, as it
goes for any new information systems integration, are the significant
development cost factors coupled with the tentative or slow public acceptance
of the new technology. A new societally accepted autonomous car system would
also result in fewer jobs for public sector workers such as taxi drivers,
parking attendants, meter maids and bus drivers because an autonomous car could
essentially circle a block after dropping its owner off or be scheduled to
return to a drop off point as needed.
However the pros far
outweigh the cons in the autonomous car design. Overall the advantages that
societies can benefit from are enormous; among which are guaranteed fewer
crashes due to the automated design factor compared to human error; reduction
in fuel and resulting pollutants; reduction in required parking space; better
managed flow of traffic which reduces road congestion; increased freedom of
movement for the disabled and minors and autonomous cars would also have the
ability to electronically communicate with other autonomous cars on the road
and therefore reduce the need for road signage.
In 1939 the world saw the first inkling of the
autonomous car by Norman
Bel Geddes at the Futurama exhibit sponsored by General
Motors where electric cars
were guided by circuit embedded roadways and radio control[2].
Then from 1980 to 1996 saw an increased interest and development of the
technology from U.S. and European Universities and governments including; a
vision-guided Mercedes-Benz robotic van, designed by Ernst
Dickmanns and his team at the Bundeswehr University Munich in Munich,
Germany that achieved 100 km/h
on streets without traffic and later received funding from the European
Commission of €800 million. HRL Laboratories (formerly Hughes Research Labs)
demonstrated the first off-road map and sensor-based autonomous navigation on
the ALV. The vehicle travelled over 600m at 3 km/h on complex terrain with
steep slopes, ravines, large rocks, and vegetation. Autonomous driving was then
demonstrated in free lane testing by Daimler-Benz and Ernst Dickmanns who drove more than one thousand
kilometers on a Paris three-lane highway in standard heavy traffic at speeds up
to 130 km/h. A year later Dickmanns´ re-engineered autonomous S-Class Mercedes-Benz later topped speeds of up to 175km/h. The U.S.
military has also been involved in developments that have produced autonomous
vehicles that can navigate over rugged terrain. Rio Tino Alcan has been
developing and testing autonomous haulage system and promises to produce an
entire fleet of driverless trucks in the coming years. In 2008, General Motors
has stated that they will begin testing driverless cars by 2015, and they could
be on the road by 2018[3].
However Audi and Mercedes could beat GM to the punch with their 2013 models
which will feature moderate speed autonomous driving systems that will drive
themselves through slow-moving traffic jams[4][5].
In February of 2012, the procedure for licensing autonomous
cars was approved by the State of Nevada; and it was Google who received the
first license of its kind in May of 2012[6]. Google wasted no time in
testing its laser turret equipped Toyota Prius on the busy highways and rural
areas of Carson City and Las Vegas strip[7] and proved to the
Autonomous Review Committee and the world that the vehicle was safe and that
the driver-less technology was rapidly progressing in the right direction. It
has not just been Nevada who has been lobbying for the licensing of the
self-driving technology but other U.S. States like California and countries all
over the world. The overwhelming demand and adoption of this new technological
application by governments and society marks a significant turning point in how
we as human beings will perceive our relationship with automotive vehicles in
the future.
Even though the autonomous or self-driving car may sound
very intriguing many countries are focusing on the lesser of the research
intensive designs and developing projects focused on semi-autonomous car
systems. RUF which stands for Rapid Urban Flexible is a Denmark project
development that seeks to revolutionize a personalized light rapid transit
system. In this clever design scenario the driver first programs the RUF to
know its destination. The information is then transferred to the system as the
vehicle approaches the monorail. The system guides the vehicle to enter the
guiderail at 30km/h[8].
Then the system takes over completely and allows the driver to relax until it gets
close to the driver’s destination and from there the driver can take over
control again and continue on manually to his destination. This is a brilliant
design because it solves many problems that any typical urban environment
contends with every day. One – unlike traditional subway or Light Rail systems
the RUF can cover widespread cities making transportation more efficient for
commuters. Two – commuters do not have to squeeze into large trains but instead
can travel in their own private car. Three – due to the close coupling of
vehicles, energy consumption can be reduced to less than one-third at 100km/h
from individual traffic[9]. Four – since RUF is an
electrical system, windmill and other forms of renewable energy can be used to
power it, therefore creating a greener more sustainable system for the future.
Five – RUF systems are very efficient on space and therefore make it easier to
integrate alongside existing railways and highways. Other countries have
adopted concepts of similar autonomous systems to the RUF like the BiWay (UK), ATN (New
Zealand) and TriTrack (USA)[10]
but have yet to gain enough private and government support to get their
projects off the ground.
Governments and countries
are faced with the legal conflicts posed by the driver-less car technology. If state
laws presume to have a human being driving the vehicle[11] how does the law govern
an artificial intelligent car? Governing bodies will have to write new laws to
include these new vehicles into society. In Nevada, Google lobbied for two
bills that allowed for self-driving vehicles to be driven on public roads. The
first bill amended the electric vehicle bill and allows for the licensing and
testing of autonomous vehicles. The second bill provides an exemption from the
ban on cell phone use while sitting behind the wheel.
Google’s tenacity is a
testament to how public and private business can influence such laws and begin
to impose laws that support their own development, as long as those
developments are in line with societal interests. As a society, what we need
now is increased influence from other big business IT companies to follow the
example set by Google; to have the courage to fulfill their role as the key
developers of our “human likeness” in the future.
[1] Dutch (September 1, 2011) "‘Parkshuttle gaat weer
rijden’". RTV Rijnmond. http://www.rtvrijnmond.nl/Homepage/Nieuws?view=/News%2FDefault%2F2011%2Fseptember%2FParkshuttle%20gaat%20weer%20rijden.
[2] O'Toole, Randal (2009). Gridlock: why we're stuck in traffic
and what to do about it. Cato Institute. ISBN 978-1-935308-23-2. http://books.google.com/books?id=1I8Wuv7P13AC.
[3] Chuck Squatriglia (2008-07-01). "GM Says Driverless Cars Could Be on the Road by 2018". Wired. http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/01/gm-says-driverl/.
[4] (January 13, 2012). Autonomous Driving Traffic Jam Assistant Coming-To Audi A8". motorauthority.com. http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1071685_autonomous-driving-traffic-jam-assistant-coming-to-audi-a8
[5] (November 14, 2011) "2013 Mercedes-Benz S-Class To Debut Autonomous Driving System". motorauthority.com. http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1068584_2013-mercedes-benz-s-class-to-debut-autonomous-driving-system
[8] Palle R Jensen, (June 3, 2010), RUF International. http://www.ruf.dk/system/p4.htm
[9] Palle R Jensen, (June 3, 2010), RUF International.
http://www.ruf.dk/system/p6.htm
[10]Roane Inventions, (August 2, 2005), Roane Inventions.
http://www.tritrack.net/intro.html